Order here from the publisher (Elsevier). Use promo code ATR30 for 30% discount at checkout time. Audience Transportation planners Public transit agency staff Government transportation department staff Transportation economists Transportation policy analysts Transportation sustainability specialists Transportation modelers Urban Planners Fleet operators Public and private sector staffs working on Mobility as a Service Students in related courses University teachers of related topics Professional futurists Table of Contents 1. Critical Terminology and System Views Terminology Systems Views Exercises 2. Three Planning Contexts: Hype, Diffusion, and Governance Forecasting: Hope, Hype, and Exaggeration A Proactive Diffusion Model Acquire-and-Operate vs Specify-and-Regulate Exercises Part I Contexts 3. A Broad Context: The Contention of Change We Focus on the Wrong Issues Automation Is Just a Catalyst Social Change Will Dwarf the Direct Effects of Automotive Innovations Two Markets The Installed Base Matters Urban Transportation Challenges Will Get Worse Before There Are Improvements Attention Is the Prize What Will Happen to Public Transit Systems? Job Change or Job Loss Human Behavior and Behavioral Economics Exercises 4. Conflicting Narratives: Shared Understanding Will Be Difficult to Achieve Utopia vs Dystopia Density vs Sprawl Share vs Own Hope vs history Human vs Machine Technology Will Solve It vs Technology Will Make It Worse History Shows Technology Helps vs History Shows Technology Hurts Market vs Regulated Infrastructure: More, Less, or Different? How Long Should We Wait Before Acting? Environment vs Jobs Internal Combustion vs Electric Vehicle Power Faster vs Slower Exercises Part II Problem 5. A Challenging Transition: Two Competing Markets Which Model Best Illuminates the Disruption? Two Consumer Markets Some Time in Hell Before Heaven Exercises 6. Transitioning Through Multiple Automated Forms Transition Will Start Immediately, Move Slowly, and Reach a New, Uncertain Stasis Predicting vs Hoping How Soon Will Full Automation (SAE Level 5) Become Mainstream? Utopia Simulated Moving From Nonautomated Through Self-Driving to Driverless Markets Exercises 7. How Privately Owned Vehicles Could Dominate the Next 30 Year Markets: Technology Adoption and Stickiness Exclusivity, Choice, Access, Need (ECAN) ECAN for the Conditionally Automated (Market 1) Vehicle ECAN for the Driverless, Market 2 Vehicle Exercises 8. A Note About Congestion 9. Barriers to Shared Use of Vehicles The Ownership Question Is More Important Than Automation Environmental vs Personal Choice The Challenge of Travelers With Nonroutine Needs Exercises Part III Solutions 10. Transit Leap in Theory How Shared Vehicles Could Dominate Passenger Trip Counts Within 30 Years Switching to Robotic Vehicles From a Regional Government Perspective Transit Leap Transformation of Ownership—Not Just Disruption of Driving Viability of Transit Leap Service Delivery and Social Equity Exercises 11. Transit Leap in Practice—City of SeaTac Background Study Status and Early Recommendations Exercises 12. Governing Fleets of Automated Vehicles What Might Be Achieved With Automated Vehicle Fleets? Factors to Be Considered for Governing Automated Fleets Performance Metrics Sharing: Neither the Default Start-State nor the Sole End-State Anticipating 2030—40 Sizing a Massive SAV Fleet The Performance Opportunity of Massive Market 2 Fleets What Would Happen Without Region-Wide Market 2 Fleet Governance? Exercises 13. Harmonizing Competitive Fleets of Automated Common Carriers Regulating Automated Vehicles Harmonization: The Opportunity Harmonization: Mode and Fleet Competition Harmonization Management System: Solution Overview Harmonization: Performance Feedback System Harmonization: Business Benefits Harmonization: Operation Harmonization: Examples Two Independent Collaborative Processes Exercises 14. The End of Driving and Transit-Oriented Development Definition of Transit-Oriented Development A Larger Target Radius for TOD Target Reduced Vehicle Ownership—Ridership Will Follow Efficacy of TOD in Metropolitan Regions for Commuting to Work A Proposed New Definition of TOD Summary Exercises 15. How Behavioral Economics Can Help How We Decide Cognitive Biases and Vehicle Ownership Loss Aversion Nudges Exercises Conclusion Glossary References Index